Weather enthusiasts in Ontario were given the opportunity to participate in a tornado forecasting competition administered by York Atmospheric Science Club (YASC) and Northern Tornadoes Project (NTP) from Western University. Participants were asked to draw a map predicting which areas tornados are likely to occur, with the winner being decided by accuracy.
The goal was to provide advanced notice of tornadic activity and to get students involved in severe weather forecasting. There were a total of 21 participants in the competition which ran for 75 days from July 8th 2022 to Sept. 20th 2022. Outlook maps were made using Google Maps, in which a polygon was constructed over the predicted area, and submissions divided into three categories —“Chance,” “Likely,” and “Outbreak.” Forecast submissions were made publicly available on YASC’s website and some were also featured on Twitter.
YASC president and fourth-year atmospheric science student Dylan Kikuta, explains the three categories of risk: “Issuing a ‘Chance’ outlook indicates a non-zero probability of tornadic activity, while the issuance of tornado ‘Outbreak’ tells people you are confident in six or more tornadoes occuring, some of which could be strong. ‘Likely’ is the halfway point, you expect isolated to scattered tornadoes and one of which could be strong.”
These three categories convey the likelihood of tornadic activity while the forecasters attempted to predict as many tornadoes as possible while creating the smallest outlook regions possible.
When asked about the challenges faced while predicting tornadoes, Kikuta says, “I think everyone learned really quickly that tornado forecasting in Ontario is brutally difficult. Ontario is arguably one of the hardest regions to forecast severe weather because there are many complex factors involved unlike anywhere else. Often, the most promising setups bust while the marginal environments produce — the great lakes play a large role in this volatility because they can have significant impacts on storm development and maintenance.”
York alumnus with a BSc and PhD in Atmospheric Science, as well as a Certificate in Meteorology, and Executive Director of the NTP, Dr. David Sills says, “Despite advances in science over the last several decades, tornado prediction remains quite challenging. It’s one of the aspects of tornadoes that the NTP is studying.”
Founded in 2017, the NTP is on a mission to document tornado occurrences in Canada. Kikuta adds that the NTP’s passion lined up well with their contest objectives, securing their partnership with YASC. “The partnership provided forecasters with an incentive to participate, and in return the NTP was able to build a stronger presence in the weather community and demonstrate their commitment to educating people about severe weather.”
Submissions and results can be viewed here at YASC’s website!
