The resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Jan. 6 comes as no surprise to Canadians considering the public’s growing frustrations with his leadership over his last few years in office.
During a press conference held outside of his residence at 24 Sussex, Trudeau stated that due to his inability to “overcome internal battles,” he could not be the best option in the next election.
The prime minister’s resignation followed the abrupt resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland on Dec. 16, 2024. In her resignation letter, Freeland wrote: “I know Canadians would recognize and respect such an approach. They would recognize when we are working for them, and they equally know when we are focused on ourselves.” Some have perceived this statement as a critique of Trudeau’s leadership.
Trudeau has been under great scrutiny since 2022 with protests against COVID-19 vaccine measures and growing discontent over the government’s immigration policy. Support for the Liberals further waned in September 2024 after Jagmeet Singh, NDP party leader, renounced his party’s alliance with the Liberals.
Chair of the Department of Politics, Professor Denis Pilon, explains that “with just 39 per cent of the vote in 2015, 34 per cent in 2019, and 32 per cent in 2021, [the Liberal party] never were as popular as they appeared to be given their seats counts. Their leader has been subject to a long permanent campaign of vilification funded by shadowy third parties (e.g. the ‘F*ck Trudeau’ memes) and he waited rather long to decide to quit, leaving the party little time to rebrand.”
Liberal leadership may be assumed by Chrystia Freeland herself, who announced her campaign on Jan. 17, or by Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of Canada.
According to Pilon, “The party could opt for ‘safe hands’ (e.g. Freedland) but such a candidate may be tarred by their association with Trudeau and his government. They could opt for an outsider with some kind of independent credibility (e.g. Carney with his technocratic skills) but that kind of candidate may suffer accusations of elitism in our populist times.”
Potential candidate Mélanie Joly has noted her intention to remain as foreign relations minister amidst Donald Trump’s return to the White House on Jan. 20. Liberal party President Sachit Mehra says that the Liberal party will choose a new leader on March 9, and will be “ready to fight and win the 2025 election.” The newly elected Liberal leader would assume office as prime minister until the next election, scheduled for Oct. 20, 2025.
For now, Parliament is suspended until March 24, as recommended by Trudeau to Governor General Mary Simon.
Political Science Professor Gregory Albo remarks that regardless of who the new Liberal party leader will be, none “represent a break from the Trudeau regime, but provide a new face at the top.”
This political turmoil coincides with Trump’s claims to Canada as the “51st state,” and concern skyrockets with the Ford government’s brandishing of “Canada is not for sale” hats.
While the Liberal party scrambles to find an heir to clean up a messy political image, Conservative candidate Pierre Poilievre leads in polls by 23 points. Poilievre’s adamant critique of Trudeau and his carbon tax policy has been the root of Conservative popularity.
Albo notes the international dimension of the rise of the far right and how this may extend to Canada under Poilievre as the Conservative party’s “linkage to the far right has become stronger over time. We now see traditional conservative parties forming governments with the far right — Czech Republic, Italy, France, Austria, Germany, and so forth. Trump represents this in the U.S.”
Pilon offers more insight to this sentiment, stating: “The Conservatives also face some challenges. They might be peaking too early. Now that Trudeau has stepped aside, their main target is gone. The public might also shift their attention to looking a bit more closely at just what Poilievre is planning and find they don’t like what they see. After all, Canadians ideologically have traditionally not been far right supporters.”
All eyes are on the Liberal party in their endeavour to polish a tainted reputation ahead of a looming federal election.
